The World in 2008

Κυκλοφόρησε και φέτος η ετήσια έκδοση “The World in 2008” από το “The Economist” με πολλά κι ενδιαφέροντα άρθρα. Ιδού μερικά.

The rediscovery of discretion
Older people, too, will extend their social networks online without feeling awkward, says Andreas Kluth

For the first 200 millennia of the species, human social networks remained technologically stable. People sat around campfires, told stories and cultivated connections. Literacy and letters, and later the telephone, helped to extend these across distance. But the trickiest part involved figuring out the right balance between divulging too much or too little to the network, and between coming on too strongly or too coyly in requesting new friendships, copulations and alliances.

E-commerce with Chinese characteristics
A million internet entrepreneurs will bloom, predicts the boss of China’s biggest internet company

In 2008 it will become clear that e-commerce will have a much larger impact in China than in the West. China will generate new models of internet business which will spill over to the West. And e-commerce will lead China’s economy into a new era in which innovation, customer focus and responsible business practices—rather than relationships with people in power—become the main determinants of success.

The future of futurology
Think small, think short—and listen

So there you are on the moon, reading The World in 2008 on disposable digital paper and waiting for the videophone to ring. But no rush, because you’re going to live for ever—and if you don’t, there’s a backed-up copy of your brain for downloading to your clone.

Six of the best
Our selection of trend-spotters’ tips for 2008

Sleep is the new sex, reckons Marian Salzman, a New York advertising executive and author of “Next Now”. In hectic lives, sleep is at a premium. And sleep sells, whether it’s flat beds on airlines, sleep consultancy, or a nap at MetroNaps in the Empire State Building. In America, growing numbers of couples are installing “sleep chambers” to give them a sleep-alone option as well as a sleep-together option. Why suffer from a partner’s snoring? People are “finding it harder to do the sharing thing,” says Ms Salzman.

Freeconomics
Online, there really is such a thing as a free lunch

In 1954, at the dawn of nuclear power, Lewis Strauss, the head of the Atomic Energy Commission, promised that we were entering an age when electricity would be “too cheap to meter”. That did not happen, mostly because the risks of nuclear energy hugely increased its costs. But what if electricity had in fact become virtually free?

Movers and shakers
European businessmen (and one woman) who will make the headlines

It is no accident that the thick of the action for Europe’s leading business people in 2008 will be utilities and technology companies. Liberalisation in energy and changing technology in the IT and telecoms sector will continue to reshape many companies, creating opportunities for some and huge problems for others. There will be disproportionate activity in France, driven by a new president keen to remodel the French economy.

Lightening up
Leave the laptop behind
Just one would do

As smart phones take over chores that trusty old laptops used to perform, road warriors are stuffing their overnight bags with other tools of the trade instead—and the trend will increase in 2008 as gadget prices fall. But beware: what you lose in weight you may make up in quantity. Thanks to miniaturisation, some of the new accessories are far lighter than their predecessors. But where before they were luxuries to take along, their new-found lightness is making them “must haves” for the road. Here are a few of the gadgets the well-armed business traveller will need in 2008.

Buying and celling
Pay with a wave of your mobile phone

There are three things that people generally take everywhere with them: keys, wallet and mobile phone. One of these hopes to do away with the other two. During 2008 the mobile phone will take a big step towards replacing your wallet. And the same technology could eventually enable it to replace your keys, too.

Cash on call
Mobile payments in the developing world

For people in the poorest countries, where bank branches are few and far between and most people do not have bank accounts at all, using a mobile phone for financial transactions may make a lot of sense. A lack of access to financial services increases the cost of borrowing and hampers entrepreneurship. Carrying large amounts of cash around, or storing it under the bed, is insecure. And sending remittances, which dwarf official aid flows for many developing countries, is subject to high transaction costs. Mobile banking and payment schemes can address all of these problems. And, unlike banks, mobile phones are proliferating fast.

Cheap but not so cheerful
The launch of the world’s lowest-priced car

Indians will have the first chance to buy the world’s cheapest car in 2008. Delayed by design changes and protests over the site of its new factory, the car is due to appear on the market around mid-year. With a two-cylinder, 30-horsepower, rear-mounted engine and four doors it is aimed at those trading up from scooters and three-wheelers. In launching it, Tata Motors, part of India’s largest private firm, will start a controversial trend.

The responsible company
Performing with purpose is the new challenge, argues Indra Nooyi, chairman and CEO of PepsiCo

The big breakthrough of 2008 will be the emergence of a new idea of the corporation. It will be based on two dimensions, performance and purpose, both rich in substance and responsible in execution.

The good jargon guide
Has the perfect storm reached a tipping point? Does the black swan have a long tail?

Profits rise and fall, bosses come and go. Management jargon has its own rhythm too. First comes the initial idea. The term “offshoring”, for instance, gained ground at the start of the decade to describe the process of sending business processes overseas. As both the practice and the terminology become more common, variations emerge. Offshoring, an ugly parent, fathered even uglier children. Firms can now relocate processes to be farther away (“farshoring”) or closer to home (“nearshoring”), or they can do a U-turn and repatriate activities (“onshoring”). The cycle fades when an idea has played itself out or when the language is so mutilated that no further harm is possible (“rightshoring”).

For the love of mankind
A big year for big giving

On June 30th 2008, after what will seem an endless stream of valedictory articles, interviews and speeches about how Microsoft has changed the world, Bill Gates will leave his day job at the software giant he co-founded in 1975. The following morning he will begin to work full-time at his charitable organisation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. True, he will remain somewhat involved with Microsoft as its non-executive chairman, and he has hardly been uninvolved in his foundation these past few years. Nonetheless, this is a significant and symbolic career change for one of the world’s most talented businessmen, who is still—aged only 52—at the peak of his powers.

Sustainable maths
Environmental reporting for companies needs teeth

Corporate accounting will not get any sexier in 2008. But it will get cleaner and greener—and perhaps even meaner. With global warming continuing to permeate political discussion, companies will be more eager than ever to offer up environmental indicators to show their good citizenship. A handful of governments—those of Spain, Norway and Canada among them—may create incentives for (or demand) better reporting from troublesome industries.

Not enough people in China
A shortage of staff means employers will take more risks in 2008

Ask senior executives about their main concerns for the year ahead, and the “shortage of talent” will come at or near the top of the list. Surely help is at hand, with the world’s most populous country now open for business? Alas, no: even China has a talent shortage.

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